Consumer Credit Declines

Consumer credit is declining. The American consumer is able to buy less and less on credit with every passing month.

During the month of July consumer credit dropped by about 3 billion dollars. As of August the collective American consumer was able to buy 2.4 trillion dollars worth of merchandise via credit if we were to all max out every account we had.


2.4 trillion is the lowest levels of consumer credit sense 2007.

More specifically revolving credit accounts which are dominated by credit card accounts fell by 5 billion dollars down to a total of 822 billion dollars in credit.

You may notice that those numbers do not exactly make sense. The 5 billion lost on credit card accounts was off set by a rise in auto loans and non revolving credit. Non-revolving credit rose by almost 2 billion dollars. to about 1.6 trillion.

oddly enough mortgage rates are at all time lows with the average 30 year fixed rate home loan at a microscopic 4.27%.

I think the declining consumer credit is a good thing, or at least a necessary thing. The US consumer has been overspending for years. We now are able to see what effect easy money ultimately has on the economy. I think we have all learned the finance lesson for the decade.

US Economic Growth... Well Kinda

The United States economy is at a fork in the road. Which way and where it will go? Nobody really knows, even if they don't tell you so.

How to Hedge a Failing US Economy

The finance blogs and finance bloggers of the world have been speaking of a dooms day looming in the not so distant future of the American economy. The really scary part is that they all have strong arguments.


There is a large supply of worry, and perhaps even a larger supply of reasons to be worried about.


In researching the current state of the American economy I had a few moments to think about what would be a good investment.


I asked myself; where should one put their hard earned money?




The Answer will shock you...









I think the most appropriate way to hedge ones portfolio at this point is to invest your time in a garden.


See the thing about this whole situation is that we as a country have messed with things like stimulus, bail outs, zero interest rates, new legislation, more regulations. and the like so much that there is little else to throw at the next unknown problem.


If things go bad again... It won't be because there is a shortage of money. No, It will be because there is no money of any standard or clearly determined value. Our economy will shift back over to the bartering system.


I am just not sure that are economic wheels can take another pot hole, recession, depression, or whatever.


We are already driving this thing with a spare tire (and on "E" thanks to BP).


The way i see it the US is still on track to a recovery, our economy is still growing, the illusion of money is still alive and well. However, there is just not a whole lot of great looking tricks to patch a tire if we catch another flat.


We can hold this thing together as long as everything runs smoothly, or if destiny blesses us with just a bit of luck we should all be just fine and dandy.


 I fear that any sort of bad luck in the near future could really F**k us.


But then again what do I know?


Let's get to the latest numbers that everyone is talking about...



GDP and Economic Growth

Where is The US Economy Going?

Over the last quarter the economy has grown at a rate of 1.6% which doesn't really sound all that bad to me. However original guidance predicted 2.4% which means that estimate fell by about 33%. On the brighter side analyst on wall street were expecting 1.3% so in that respect we are up 20%. I think that the fact that we are growing at all is either a miracle or a damn lie.


Over the last four quarters GDP has averaged 2.9%, The Experts on the matter say that unemployment will only get worst unless we have a GDP growth rate of 3%.


US Consumers



The US Consumer has actually been spending more on everything except for housing. Not to long ago I posted that the housing market was stabilizing but apparently I am a big fat liar.


Housing Numbers

Consumers are Spending - But Not on Housing

From the home sale numbers that have been released I estimate that at the very most in the month of July only 23,000 homes were bought and sold. This is less then an avg of 500 per state though trust me when I say that state home sale numbers differ tremendously. That does not say much for the previously posted story on the housing stability theory.

 In fact you have to go back half a century or so to find home sale numbers that low!

The home sale numbers have droped 33% year over year and they were not doing so well last year as you already know unless you have a world of warcraft account.


On top of that the Make Home Affordable Plan, Obama's mortgage assistance programs, has had fewer and fewer loan modification workouts come through HAMP, the modification program. The Obama modification plan, or more accurately HAMP has been a tremendous success by any comparative measure. But just the same, as of late, the HAMP performance has been a bit sluggish.


However the Obama Plan made an additional Hardest Hit Fund Payment to an additional five states that were hardest hit by the financial crisis.


I believe the foreclosure prevention assistance payout through the Hardest Hit Fund was 600 million dollars. Combining that with the original 1.5 billion dollars that stimulus total adds up to 2.1 billion dollars.

I think Obama is doing an amazing job overall on this side of things. Obama's housing and financial stability efforts have been tremendous.



The US Job Market



The private market is actually still producing new jobs. In July we had 71,000 new private sector work force additions. However the US economy as a whole shed a total of approximately 130,000 jobs.


These job losses were in large part due to the temporary census jobs that have come to an end. In July this number was around 145,000 jobs terminated. In June 225,000 jobs were lost. That is a total of 370,000 paychecks that are no longer going to be spent every other Friday... That is just no good.


But let us not get to hung up on that large and very scary number. The good news is that the private market is hiring and not firing. This is a blessing and a glimmer of hope for homeowners.

Stabilizing The Housing Market – How America Did It

The mortgage loan and housing crisis created tremendous economic anxiety and directed the American economy towards a black hole of financial hardship.

Though the US economy is not out of the recession or perhaps depression, things have appeared to settle down a bit.

It looks as if the housing market may be stabilizing. This sis a article exploring the steps and actions that were taken to stabilize the US housing market.

Key Actions of Housing Recovery

• The FHA's Efforts and Powerful Initiative

• Their efforts to spend capital on mortgage assets and securities when private capital was no where to be found.

• Political backing of their efforts to reform the financial markets and particularly the practices and operations involving debt and risk management.

• Obama’s Making Home Affordable Plan

• HAMP Modifications have helped 1.2 million homeowners obtain a loan modification

• HARP Refinance

• Lender Incentives

• Freddie Mae as acting agent for the MHA-C or the compliance assurance operations

• The Plans overall flexibility and agility to structure and restructure programs as they are needed.

• The Marketing and Advertising – aka the out reach efforts of the Making Home Affordable Plan

• The Hardest Hit Fund – Foreclosure Relief

• Home Buyer Tax Credit
• The home buyer tax credit added a great incentive for first time home buyers.

• The Nearly 25 Billion Dollars Given to US Housing Agencies
• US Housing Agencies were able to keep lending while other private lenders were saddle bagging cash out of fear and financial panic.

• 1.4 Trillion dollars of Purchases by the FED and Treasury to Keep Credit Markets from Choking
• Thank God. We would be Russian otherwise.

• Financial Support for Fannie and Freddie

All of these actions taken by our collective American government has really helped stabilize the US housing market.

Refinancing Consumer Craze - Low Mortgage Interest Rates

Low Mortgage Rates – Low Mortgage Origination –

Sky Rocketing Mortgage Refinance Origination Loans

Low Mortgage Rates Create High Demand for Mortgage Refinancing

Mortgage rates are low as they can be. I honestly do not know if we are ever going to see rates this low ever again. Though I should say that statements like that some how always seem to turn out wrong.




So with low mortgage rates you may suspect as I would that there would be high levels of mortgage origination's. Consumers would take advantage of such an opportunity.



Right…



…well…



…yes and no.



See the level of mortgage origination's is not rising. This is due to the low home sale figures as of late. But consumers are still taking advantage of the low mortgage rates.



Consumers are taking advantage of low mortgage interest rates by refinancing out of higher more profitable (for lenders) interest rate mortgage products into lower more borrower friendly loans. Mortgage refinancing activity has doubled from the end of the first quarter.



According to MBA, the Mortgage Banking Association, the weekly refinance index has pushed past 4,000. That number dwarfs recent index lows of 2,000.



I think that this is a positive trend for the American consumer. By refinancing into a lower mortgage rate homeowners will be able to lower monthly mortgage rates and and make home affordable.



This is a great opportunity for consumers to take advantage of the ability to utilize mortgage refinance as a debt solution in these times of financial hardship.